What if TSMC Japan Kumamoto cluster diversifies node geography?
TSMC's expanded Kumamoto and second Japan fab spread leading-edge capacity outside Taiwan; semiconductor concentration risk falls, SMH derates its Strait premium, Japanese chip suppliers benefit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. TSMC's expanded Kumamoto and second Japan fab spread leading-edge capacity outside Taiwan; semiconductor concentration risk falls, SMH derates its Strait premium, Japanese chip suppliers benefit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.22–-0.7% · other way +7.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.14–+2.1% · other way -2.9% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.15–+0.8% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.0–+3.94% · other way +2.47% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.32–+1.95% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.76–+0.76% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.24–+0.43% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -6.54–+19.86% · other way -1.92% (n=12) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+1.19% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -9.92–+2.01% · other way +2.39% (n=9) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.38–+0.74% · other way -2.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.56–+2.87% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.5% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.14–+1.11% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.1% | 76% | 40 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -7.0% | 72% | 36 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.3% | 69% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.7% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +1.0% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |