What if India and Pakistan trade strikes over Kashmir?
Contained nuclear-rivalry scare: VIX +11, modest Nasdaq/S&P dip, a token oil bid. Closest measured rhyme is the May-2025 and 2019 Pulwama/Balakot exchanges — Nifty and the rupee dipped then recovered within a week once both sides signaled de-escalation. Transmission: neither is a major commodity supplier, so the global beta hit is sentiment, not fundamentals; the local trade is short INR and Indian equities intraday, but the Gulf remittance/oil-import channel is the real tail — fade unless strikes hit cities or the nuclear ladder is climbed.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. India and Pakistan exchange cross-border strikes over Kashmir, raising nuclear-rivalry fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.