What if a blade defect forces a global wind-turbine recall?
A fleet-wide turbine-blade recall is an idiosyncratic OEM-quality event (think Siemens Energy/Gamesa's 2023 blade-quality blowup that halved the stock), not a macro driver; the mapped copper leg is negligible. Trade is single-name equity and credit at the turbine maker, plus marginal wind-buildout delay. Skeptical: no broad asset moves on this — it is a stock story, and the scenario's macro cascade is essentially noise.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A systemic blade-failure defect forces a global recall across a top turbine maker's installed fleet. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.