What if Turkey storms east of the Euphrates against the SDF?
Turkey storming east of the Euphrates to seize the SDF oilfields is a contained, low-volume crude event -- the northeast Syrian fields are tiny (~tens of kbd), so +2.4% Brent is a pure risk premium, not a balance effect. Rhymes with Turkey's 2019 Operation Peace Spring incursion, which spiked regional risk but left global oil flat. Transmission: the channel is US-Turkey/NATO friction and Kurdish-autonomy politics, plus Russian/Iranian positioning -- not barrels. Forward: the new wrinkle is shattering a fresh SDF-Damascus integration deal, raising re-escalation odds versus 2019.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Turkey and the SNA launch a new offensive across the Euphrates against the now-integrated SDF, shattering the integration deal and seizing the oilfields. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.