What if Ug99 stem rust reaches South Asia's wheat belts?
Ug99 stem rust in South Asian wheat belts is a genuine staple-disaster tail — long wheat outright, with India/Pakistan forced from net exporter toward import and panic stockpiling. Rhymes with the 2007 Ug99 scare that spurred CIMMYT's global resistance-breeding push; a full breach of Indian wheat would dwarf the Black Sea disruptions of 2022. WHEAT root is rightly direct here; the residual fab-water/energy legs are minor but the core mapping is sound.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Virulent Ug99 stem rust spreads from East Africa into South Asian wheat belts, threatening a staple-crop disaster. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.