What if a weaker pound and higher crude lift UK pump prices to record levels?
A weaker pound combined with higher crude lifts UK pump prices to record levels, feeding directly into headline CPI and squeezing household budgets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A weaker pound combined with higher crude lifts UK pump prices to record levels, feeding directly into headline CPI and squeezing household budgets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ · Gasoline ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.08–+0.49% · other way +0.79% (n=10) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.55–-0.04% · other way -1.29% (n=8) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.26–-0.12% · other way +2.13% (n=9) |
| 4 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.05–+0.24% · other way -1.1% (n=8) |
| 5 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.87–+0.24% · other way +1.04% (n=8) |
| 6 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.47% · other way -0.31% (n=10) |
| 7 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.05% · other way +0.31% (n=8) |
| 8 | Korean won KRWon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.77–+0.22% · other way -0.63% (n=8) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.46% · other way +2.28% (n=10) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–-0.03% · other way -0.79% (n=7) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.79–+19.28% · other way +4.1% (n=10) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.52–+11.8% · other way +3.0% (n=10) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–+0.32% · other way -1.38% (n=10) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 25 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 71% | 14 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 69% | 16 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 63% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 15 | 0.24 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +2.3% | 62% | 8 | 0.18 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 23 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.5% | 57% | 14 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 53% | 15 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 43% | 14 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 15 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.6% | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |