What if war takes Ukraine's farmland out of production?
Renewed war damage to Ukrainian farmland is a genuine global-grain tail — long wheat, corn and sunflower oil, with a real (if modest) risk-off bid; here the geopolitical-vol leg is at least defensible. Rhymes with the Feb-2022 invasion and the 2023 Black Sea grain-deal collapse, which spiked wheat ~40% intraday before normalizing. Transmission hits Egypt/MENA and EU import bills; WHEAT-direct plus geopolitical_risk is reasonable, though the 3.7% Nasdaq move likely overshoots given 2022's fast mean-reversion.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed conflict and mined fields take vast Ukrainian cropland out of production, tightening global grain and sunflower oil. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.