What if Ukraine planted-area collapse cuts the global corn surplus?
War damage, mines and input shortages shrink Ukraine's corn planted area again, removing a major exporter and tightening world feed-grain balances.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. War damage, mines and input shortages shrink Ukraine's corn planted area again, removing a major exporter and tightening world feed-grain balances. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.22–+2.77% · other way -4.53% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.61–+0.26% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.85–+0.9% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.27–+0.31% · other way +1.73% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.41–+0.61% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.65–+0.39% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.25–+3.06% · other way +33.18% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.09% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
| 9 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.53–+0.9% · other way -2.15% (n=12) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.87–+0.25% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 11 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.36–+0.95% · other way -4.49% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.2% · other way +9.23% (n=11) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.57–+0.53% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.12–+0.22% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.4% | 64% | 33 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +5.3% | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 32 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.6% | 56% | 33 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 29 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 33 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |