What if US ban on Russian uranium imports tightens enriched supply?
Full enforcement of the US Russian-uranium import ban removes a cheap enriched-fuel source, forcing utilities into Western conversion and enrichment at higher prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Full enforcement of the US Russian-uranium import ban removes a cheap enriched-fuel source, forcing utilities into Western conversion and enrichment at higher prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.75–-0.18% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.66–-0.3% · other way -1.22% (n=5) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.1–-0.07% · other way -10.84% (n=5) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–-0.28% · other way -4.26% (n=5) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–-0.07% · other way +2.39% (n=2) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.59–+-0.0% · other way +0.01% (n=5) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.88–+0.45% · other way +0.6% (n=5) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.52–-0.1% · other way -12.07% (n=7) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.73–+0.38% · other way -2.58% (n=2) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.58–+0.29% · other way -14.8% (n=7) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.69–+1.54% · other way -1.85% (n=5) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.38–-0.13% · other way -0.5% (n=5) |
| 13 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.49–+0.23% · other way -9.23% (n=5) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.68–+0.34% · other way +6.77% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.6% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 22 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.0% · 5d -6.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 20 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |