What if US becomes the world's dominant LNG exporter, anchors global gas?
Completion of the export buildout makes the US the largest LNG supplier by far, with Henry-Hub-plus pricing anchoring global contracts and reshaping the geopolitics of the gas trade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Completion of the export buildout makes the US the largest LNG supplier by far, with Henry-Hub-plus pricing anchoring global contracts and reshaping the geopolitics of the gas trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.63–+1.69% · other way +1.29% (n=7) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.95–+1.5% · other way +8.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.64–+5.6% · other way +4.78% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.24–+0.81% · other way -0.14% (n=7) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.79–+2.07% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.06–+0.16% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.5% · other way +7.68% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.09–+0.14% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 73% | 31 | 0.32 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.08 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 50% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 40% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 41% | 26 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 46% | 34 | 0.00 | · |