What if US escalates chip Section-232 tariff to 100%?
The semiconductor Section-232 rate is ratcheted to 100% on non-allied production, a near-embargo that spikes semiconductor-supply stress and forces a hardware-capex reset.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The semiconductor Section-232 rate is ratcheted to 100% on non-allied production, a near-embargo that spikes semiconductor-supply stress and forces a hardware-capex reset. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.6% hist -2.44–-0.82% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.98–-0.46% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.96–-0.95% · other way +0.59% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.89–-0.82% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -3.24–-0.01% · other way -1.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.29–-0.73% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.51–-0.27% · other way -3.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.83–+1.3% · other way +3.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.75–+0.41% · other way -2.65% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.33–-0.02% · other way -0.35% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.68–+0.85% · other way +10.27% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -7.48–+1.97% · other way -16.98% (n=11) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.78–+0.56% · other way -3.87% (n=12) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.82–-0.03% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.9% | 69% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.3% | 65% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.3% · 5d -4.5% | 67% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -7.9% | 68% | 24 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.6% | 65% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 34 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d +1.0% | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.7% | 63% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +4bp | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -6.3% | 60% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |