What if US HALEU shortage stalls advanced-reactor fuel loading?
A high-assay low-enriched uranium bottleneck, worsened by lost Russian supply, delays advanced-reactor first cores and spikes HALEU and enrichment service prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A high-assay low-enriched uranium bottleneck, worsened by lost Russian supply, delays advanced-reactor first cores and spikes HALEU and enrichment service prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.63–+0.15% · other way -9.23% (n=5) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.26–+0.44% · other way -11.14% (n=5) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.64–+0.32% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.12–+0.32% · other way -9.7% (n=5) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.1% · other way -1.22% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.35–+0.07% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.14–+0.79% · other way -9.62% (n=5) |
| 8 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–+0.07% · other way +2.39% (n=2) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.27–-0.1% · other way -4.26% (n=5) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.76–+0.14% · other way -10.84% (n=5) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.05% · other way -12.07% (n=7) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.49–+0.55% · other way -2.58% (n=2) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.35–+0.43% · other way -14.8% (n=7) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+1.72% · other way -1.85% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 64% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +3bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.6% | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |