What if faster renewables growth caps LNG import demand and strands US export terminals?
A faster global renewables transition caps LNG import demand below export-terminal capacity, stranding US Gulf-Coast liquefaction assets and their project debt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A faster global renewables transition caps LNG import demand below export-terminal capacity, stranding US Gulf-Coast liquefaction assets and their project debt. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.67% · other way -0.71% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.56–+3.23% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.37% · other way -0.55% (n=11) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.83–+0.16% · other way +6.26% (n=11) |
| 5 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.4–+0.27% · other way +1.12% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.93–+1.53% · other way +12.15% (n=11) |
| 7 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.94–+0.44% · other way +2.46% (n=11) |
| 8 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.64–+0.15% · other way -0.64% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.02–+2.51% · other way -4.26% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.5% | 75% | 40 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 39 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 66% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.6% | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d +0.5% | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 46% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 34% | 25 | 0.00 | · |