What if US LNG export surge ramps past 25 Bcf/d, weighs on TTF?
A cluster of new US trains lifts export capacity past 25 Bcf/d, but with global demand lagging the new supply pushes Atlantic-basin LNG and TTF lower even as Henry Hub firms on feedgas pull.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cluster of new US trains lifts export capacity past 25 Bcf/d, but with global demand lagging the new supply pushes Atlantic-basin LNG and TTF lower even as Henry Hub firms on feedgas pull. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.34–+8.68% · other way -2.5% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.53–+9.81% · other way -1.34% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.7–+1.27% · other way +3.49% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.03–+0.2% · other way +0.36% (n=10) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.12–+0.23% · other way -5.82% (n=10) |
| 7 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+0.53% · other way +0.37% (n=10) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.3–+4.07% · other way +4.45% (n=9) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.35–+0.28% · other way +0.17% (n=10) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -4.52–+15.95% · other way +9.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -6.81–+15.14% · other way +5.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 72% | 15 | 0.29 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 24 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.8% · 5d -6.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 65% | 16 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 20 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.14 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 56% | 24 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.9% | 55% | 18 | 0.10 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.2% | 57% | 20 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 18 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 53% | 18 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.8% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 41% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |