What if a border closure disrupts US-Mexico trade and labour?
A US-Mexico border closure is a trade-and-labor shock, so the cleanest expression is auto/manufacturing supply chains and the peso, with a modest US risk-off and a small breakeven bump — the cascade's generic VIX/gold read understates the USMCA channel. Rhymes with the 2019 Trump tariff-threat over migration that briefly hit the peso and auto names before being rescinded. Transmission: Mexico is the US's top goods-trade partner and a JIT auto-parts hub, so the peso and Detroit OEMs are the instruments, not broad tech.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A border closure and migration shock disrupts US-Mexico trade and labor. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Labor shortage ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.