What if the US launches direct strikes on cartels in Mexico?
US strikes inside Mexico plus a border shutdown is a USMCA/peso rupture, so the actionable trade is MXN and auto-supply-chain names -- the semis-heavy cascade misreads the channel. Rhymes with 2019's tariff-threat episodes when MXN and Mexican equities sold off on border-closure rhetoric. Transmission: ~$800bn in annual bilateral trade and integrated auto/electronics lines mean a closure hits US autos and Mexican exporters first. Forward: an actual military strike is unprecedented, so the sovereignty/diplomatic premium in MXN would exceed any past tariff scare.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US military launches direct strikes on cartel targets inside Mexico, provoking a diplomatic rupture and border-trade shutdown. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +8.3% hist +1.31–+8.36% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.7% hist -3.4–-1.81% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.46–-1.26% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.9% hist -2.28–-1.03% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.2% hist -2.2–-0.69% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -3.41–-0.29% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.69–-0.79% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.92–+0.77% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -3.87–+0.17% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.55–-0.35% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.75–+2.59% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -3.24–+0.04% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.75–+0.78% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.8–-0.52% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short MSTR/AVGO; their +10-13% realized is entirely Liberation-Day tariff-rebound windows — regime contamination, not a signal for US strikes inside Mexico.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 80% | 19 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 20 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 20 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 19 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
US strikes on cartels actively threatened under Trump; designation done, kinetic step plausible in window A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.