What if USMCA broke down and severed North American supply chains?
A USMCA breakdown disrupts deeply integrated North-American auto/electronics supply chains, so the hit is to cross-border manufacturing margins and the tariff-exposed tech sleeve, with risk appetite drained at the margin. The closest live rhyme is the 2018 NAFTA-renegotiation scare and Apr-2025 tariff tape, both of which pressured autos and MXN before partial resolution. Transmission: Mexico is now the top US import source — a break hits the peso and auto OEMs hardest, an angle the generic China-tariff cascade understates.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A USMCA / trade-bloc breakdown disrupts North-American supply chains. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.