What if a disorderly carbon price cascades into utility fossil-generation impairments across the sector?
A disorderly carbon price triggers a cascade of fossil-generation impairments across utilities, with stranded coal and gas plants eroding sector equity and credit simultaneously.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A disorderly carbon price triggers a cascade of fossil-generation impairments across utilities, with stranded coal and gas plants eroding sector equity and credit simultaneously. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.59–+0.91% · other way -0.12% (n=10) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.52–-0.08% · other way +19.1% (n=10) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.06–+0.73% · other way +0.81% (n=10) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.27–+2.38% · other way +2.34% (n=4) |
| 5 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–+0.0% · other way +1.63% (n=8) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.39–+6.65% · other way -10.32% (n=10) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.31–+0.32% · other way +2.49% (n=10) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.74–+0.64% · other way +11.74% (n=4) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.47–+0.91% · other way +1.21% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.06% · other way +14.66% (n=4) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.54–+0.02% · other way -1.61% (n=10) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.58–+0.36% · other way +7.93% (n=10) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.49–+0.04% · other way -1.19% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 70% | 19 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -4.4% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |