What if a massive volcanic eruption grounds global aviation?
A VEI-6 ash-cloud (Pinatubo-class) grounds aviation and cools a crop season: long wheat/corn on yield loss, short jet fuel/airlines on grounded fleets, modest broad risk-off. The 1991 Pinatubo eruption is the direct analogue — ~0.5C of global cooling and measurable crop pressure the following year; the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull closure is the aviation-grounding template. The semiconductor 'water-stress' leg is again a climate_supply artifact and should be ignored — the root is right for grains, the fab channel is noise.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A large explosive eruption injects ash into the stratosphere, grounding global aviation and cooling crop yields for a season. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.3% hist -1.05–+2.07% · other way -3.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.43–+2.35% · other way -2.77% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -7.91–+6.14% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.88–+1.06% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.93–+0.05% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -7.61–+6.57% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.63–-0.08% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.46–+3.8% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.59–+12.75% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.81–+0.28% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–+0.01% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.92–+0.13% · other way +5.24% (n=11) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.14% · other way -1.4% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +2.5% | 77% | 13 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.6% | 74% | 15 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.5% · 5d -3.7% | 67% | 3 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +-0.0% | 67% | 12 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.3% | 67% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 10 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -4.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +3.6% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 14 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
VEI-6 eruptions roughly century-scale; aviation-shutdown event extremely rare structural tail. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.