What if chipmaker vendor financing to AI customers sours as those customers miss revenue?
Chipmaker and cloud vendor financing extended to AI customers sours as those customers miss revenue, forcing the vendors to absorb credit losses and cut their own guidance.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chipmaker and cloud vendor financing extended to AI customers sours as those customers miss revenue, forcing the vendors to absorb credit losses and cut their own guidance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.