What if a room-temperature superconductor is finally verified?
A verified ambient superconductor is a copper-demand structural short: Freeport and the whole miner complex de-rate as grid/transmission copper intensity collapses, while humanoid/robotics and GPU names (TSLA, NVDA) catch a productivity bid. The LK-99 episode (Jul-2023) is the cautionary analogue — a replication frenzy that round-tripped to zero, so fade the first spike unless independent labs confirm. Note the cascade tags global_growth DOWN on cheaper copper, which is backwards: an energy-efficiency breakthrough is growth-positive medium-term; the near-term miner short is the only high-conviction leg.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Independent labs confirm an ambient-pressure superconductor, upending power grids, magnets, copper demand and incumbent cable makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.