What if a room-temperature superconductor is finally verified?
A verified ambient superconductor is a copper-demand structural short: Freeport and the whole miner complex de-rate as grid/transmission copper intensity collapses, while humanoid/robotics and GPU names (TSLA, NVDA) catch a productivity bid. The LK-99 episode (Jul-2023) is the cautionary analogue — a replication frenzy that round-tripped to zero, so fade the first spike unless independent labs confirm. Note the cascade tags global_growth DOWN on cheaper copper, which is backwards: an energy-efficiency breakthrough is growth-positive medium-term; the near-term miner short is the only high-conviction leg.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Independent labs confirm an ambient-pressure superconductor, upending power grids, magnets, copper demand and incumbent cable makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -12.0% hist -6.2–-3.38% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -9.6% hist -5.59–-3.24% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.59–+4.41% · other way -3.19% (n=12) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.46–+0.88% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -16.24–+0.61% · other way +5.03% (n=12) |
| 6 | KOSPI 200 KR200on Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.71–+0.14% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 7 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.69–-0.24% · other way -0.04% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -8.45–+21.48% · other way +11.68% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nifty 50 NIFTYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.29–+0.04% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.4% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.09–+0.52% · other way +2.67% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–-0.07% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.75–+2.68% · other way +2.39% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -12.3% · 5d -6.4% | 85% | 19 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KR200 KR200 | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.1% | 75% | 23 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.1% | 71% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 23 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.4% | 67% | 23 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 24 | 0.23 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 22 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +20.5% · 5d +2.7% | 58% | 23 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NIFTY NIFTY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 22 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +0bp | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 23 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Ambient superconductor repeatedly unconfirmed (LK-99 failed); verified result remains rare/novel. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.