What if Wartime-style fiscal expansion lifts DM defense borrowing and yields?
A deteriorating security backdrop drives sustained DM defense outlays funded by debt; supply rises and the term premium climbs even as defense names are bid.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A deteriorating security backdrop drives sustained DM defense outlays funded by debt; supply rises and the term premium climbs even as defense names are bid. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.85–+2.65% · other way -3.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.67–+2.29% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.81–+0.97% · other way -4.07% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.48% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.37–+0.01% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.91–+5.65% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.17–+0.77% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.02–+4.05% · other way +12.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.35–+0.31% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +3bp hist +0.02–+3.64% · other way +12.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.28–+2.25% · other way +5.17% (n=12) |
| 12 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–-0.03% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -7.21–+3.0% · other way +5.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.2% · 5d +8.8% | 90% | 9 | 0.67 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -3.9% | 69% | 15 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +3.0% | 66% | 29 | 0.27 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 19 | 0.25 | · |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -4.7% | 56% | 7 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 23 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +1.2% | 52% | 31 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +5bp | 52% | 34 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.0% | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 51% | 34 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +0.1% | 49% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |