What if trans-boundary water disputes escalate into trade and diplomatic friction?
Trans-boundary water disputes (Nile, Mekong, Indus) escalate into trade and diplomatic friction, threatening agricultural output and regional stability.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Trans-boundary water disputes (Nile, Mekong, Indus) escalate into trade and diplomatic friction, threatening agricultural output and regional stability. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.3% hist +1.85–+4.94% · other way -4.53% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.1% hist -1.94–-1.11% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.61–-0.46% · other way +1.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.28–-0.51% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.53–+0.17% · other way +2.5% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.49–+0.22% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.82–-0.46% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.38–+0.97% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -2.71–+0.48% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.24–-0.24% · other way +2.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.45–-0.16% · other way +1.73% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.55–+0.49% · other way -4.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -4.4–+0.82% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–+1.66% · other way +33.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 35 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.7% | 68% | 39 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -7.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 21 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 32 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +6bp | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | · |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.1% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.3% | 57% | 32 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |