What if Western heatwave strains CAISO into rotating-outage warnings?
A multi-day Western heatwave with low hydro and import limits pushes CAISO to Stage 3 emergencies and rotating-outage warnings, spiking real-time power prices and stressing the regional grid.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-day Western heatwave with low hydro and import limits pushes CAISO to Stage 3 emergencies and rotating-outage warnings, spiking real-time power prices and stressing the regional grid. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.71–+2.76% · other way +0.49% (n=10) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.77–+0.06% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.89–+0.13% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.68% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.71–+1.49% · other way +14.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.31–+6.87% · other way -11.64% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.12–-0.07% · other way +6.03% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.68% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–+0.04% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.49–+0.14% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.87–+4.42% · other way +21.85% (n=10) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+1.2% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.05–+1.6% · other way +4.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 68% | 37 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -3.6% | 64% | 37 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +5.0% | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.6% | 59% | 14 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.8% | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -7.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 19 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.6% | 40% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 39% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |