What if Wet-bulb heat events make parts of South Asia unlivable?
Recurrent lethal wet-bulb heat across the Indo-Gangetic plain curtails outdoor labor and agriculture for stretches each year, denting regional growth and lifting food risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Recurrent lethal wet-bulb heat across the Indo-Gangetic plain curtails outdoor labor and agriculture for stretches each year, denting regional growth and lifting food risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.07–+0.55% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.22–+4.67% · other way -11.18% (n=11) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.35% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.21–+3.21% · other way -2.37% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.43–+0.55% · other way +19.87% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.33–+0.47% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.43% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.79–+5.57% · other way -7.02% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.1–+3.53% · other way +3.73% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.44–+0.58% · other way +2.48% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.76% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.09–+0.94% · other way +1.47% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +8.1% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.21 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 61% | 18 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 18 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.9% | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 39% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 40% | 10 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |