What if Wildfire-risk public-safety power shutoffs hit Western reliability?
Expanded preventive public-safety power shutoffs during high-wind fire weather cut power to millions across the West, raising economic disruption and grid-hardening costs for utilities like PG&E.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Expanded preventive public-safety power shutoffs during high-wind fire weather cut power to millions across the West, raising economic disruption and grid-hardening costs for utilities like PG&E. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.59–+3.11% · other way +0.49% (n=10) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.11–+2.29% · other way +2.69% (n=10) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.04% · other way +20.8% (n=12) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.1–+0.3% · other way -0.63% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.25% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.27–+1.72% · other way -0.49% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.54–+5.01% · other way -11.64% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.49% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.1–+1.85% · other way +6.03% (n=10) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.52% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.06% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.5–+0.15% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.59–+4.57% · other way +21.85% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.9% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 37 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.5% · 5d +5.0% | 61% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d 0bp | 57% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 22 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 20 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d -2bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 51% | 36 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |