What if a once-in-a-century flood inundates the Yangtze basin?
Trade it through China demand: a Yangtze mega-flood idles industrial heartland output, so copper and AUD soften on weaker China metals demand while the CNY and China internet names wobble. Rhymes with the 2020 Yangtze floods that hit Hubei/Anhui industry and pressured base metals. Transmission runs via China being ~55% of copper demand and the marginal oil importer; the Three-Gorges tail risk is the convex add-on that would spike, not dump, hydropower-adjacent risk.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A once-in-century Yangtze flood inundates Chinese industrial heartland, idling factories and threatening the Three Gorges Dam. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.