What if a once-in-a-century flood inundates the Yangtze basin?
Trade it through China demand: a Yangtze mega-flood idles industrial heartland output, so copper and AUD soften on weaker China metals demand while the CNY and China internet names wobble. Rhymes with the 2020 Yangtze floods that hit Hubei/Anhui industry and pressured base metals. Transmission runs via China being ~55% of copper demand and the marginal oil importer; the Three-Gorges tail risk is the convex add-on that would spike, not dump, hydropower-adjacent risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A once-in-century Yangtze flood inundates Chinese industrial heartland, idling factories and threatening the Three Gorges Dam. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -6.87–+1.56% · other way +8.06% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.92–+0.25% · other way +1.17% (n=11) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.46–+0.73% · other way -1.8% (n=8) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.03–+0.14% · other way -4.6% (n=8) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+0.13% · other way +0.26% (n=10) |
| 6 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–-0.05% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 7 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.55–+0.04% · other way +5.18% (n=11) |
| 8 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.75–+0.53% · other way +4.6% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +1.4% ↺ fades | 70% | 29 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 25 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -2.3% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 29 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | · |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 29 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -6bp | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 54% | 29 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +2.2% | 48% | 32 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Once-in-century Yangtze flood threatening Three Gorges in a single 6mo is below base rate. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.