What if the Fed adopts yield-curve control to cap long-term interest rates?
Confronted with a debt-laden fiscal backdrop and rising long rates, the Fed adopts yield-curve control to cap long yields, blurring monetary-fiscal lines.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Confronted with a debt-laden fiscal backdrop and rising long rates, the Fed adopts yield-curve control to cap long yields, blurring monetary-fiscal lines. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Real yields ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.05–+1.66% · other way -0.06% (n=10) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist +0.1–+1.52% · other way +4.77% (n=10) |
| 3 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.7% hist -5.41–+2.85% · other way -4.55% (n=10) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.3% hist -12.2–+15.51% · other way -17.92% (n=10) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.09–+1.13% · other way -1.13% (n=10) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -3.06–+3.18% · other way -4.56% (n=10) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.56–-0.34% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.1–+0.85% · other way -1.29% (n=10) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.9–+1.9% · other way -7.14% (n=10) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.02–+0.63% · other way +0.39% (n=10) |
| 12 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.43–+0.68% · other way +0.64% (n=10) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–-0.07% · other way +0.73% (n=10) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.71–+1.31% · other way -1.02% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -9.7% | 100% | 3 | 0.59 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -3.9% | 80% | 5 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 80% | 5 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.5% | 72% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -2.3% | 73% | 15 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 22 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 34 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |