Central Banks & Macro · catalyst playbook

Jackson Hole Symposium

Central bankers use Jackson Hole to signal the regime, not to set policy. A hawkish or dovish lean in the Chair's framing has repriced the curve and the dollar before — 2-3% gold moves within 48 hours are common.

What to watch: The Chair's balance between the inflation mandate and the employment mandate, and any hint on the pace/endpoint of policy.

Three ways this can break, each with its butterfly cascade (the first move → what it sets off next) and a probable-recommendation playbook. Probabilities are our model's base rates for each outcome; cascade magnitudes are typical first-day reaction-function priors.

40%

Hawkish lean — inflation-first framing

risk off

The Chair leans into the inflation mandate and pushes back on cut expectations. The curve and the dollar reprice hawkish; risk and gold give back.

Immediate effects · the first move

▲ 2-year Treasury yield DGS2+8 to +15bpthe signal pushes cuts further out
▲ US dollar (DXY) DXY+0.4 to +0.8%a hawkish lean widens the rate gap
▼ Gold XAU-1 to -2%real yields up; 48h gold moves here are historically large

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▼ Nasdaq 100 NDX-1 to -2%long-duration equity sells the higher path
▼ Bitcoin BTC-2 to -4%the liquidity proxy de-risks

Probable recommendation

Hawkish signal; trim risk and duration.

LongLong DXY↗ +0.6%

ShortShort NDX↘ -1.5%Short BTC↘ -3.0%Short XAU↘ -1.5%

Cash / hedgeRaise cash; the symposium is a signalling event — position for the path, not a same-day policy change.

For a common-man portfolio: If the Fed chief talks tough on inflation, markets read it as 'rates stay high.' Tech, gold and crypto usually dip — keep some cash ready.

40%

Neutral — data-dependent, balanced

mixed

The Chair stays balanced and data-dependent, declining to pre-commit. Vol that built into the speech deflates; the tape drifts.

Immediate effects · the first move

▼ Volatility (VIX) VIX-3 to -6%the anticipated signal doesn't surprise either way
◆ 2-year Treasury yield DGS2~flatno new path information

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▲ S&P 500 SPX+0.2 to +0.6%relief drift as the event clears

Probable recommendation

Fade the event vol; no regime change.

LongLong SPX↗ +0.4%

ShortShort VIX↘ -5%

For a common-man portfolio: A balanced, 'we'll watch the data' speech is a non-event — the build-up of nerves fades and markets drift. Nothing to do.

20%

Dovish lean — employment-risk pivot

risk on

The Chair tilts toward employment risk and opens the door to easing. The curve rallies, the dollar softens, and risk and gold catch a strong bid.

Immediate effects · the first move

▼ 2-year Treasury yield DGS2-10 to -18bpthe door to cuts re-opens; the front end rallies
▼ US dollar (DXY) DXY-0.5 to -1%a dovish lean unwinds dollar longs
▲ Gold XAU+1.5 to +2.5%the classic dovish-Jackson-Hole gold move

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▲ Nasdaq 100 NDX+1.5 to +2.5%lower discount rate lifts long-duration growth
▲ Bitcoin BTC+3 to +5%high-beta liquidity proxy leads

Probable recommendation

Risk-on; lean into duration and high-beta.

LongLong BTC↗ +4.0%Long NDX↗ +2.0%Long XAU↗ +2.0%

ShortShort DXY↘ -0.7%

For a common-man portfolio: If the Fed signals it's worried about jobs (and open to cuts), that's cheaper money ahead — good for stocks, gold and crypto.

Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Kalshi ↗ ← All catalysts

Reaction-function priors tuned to the current regime, grounded in published cross-asset consensus — not measured abnormal returns (those are on the individual scenario pages). This is a probabilistic model of the future, not investment advice.