Central Banks & Macro · catalyst playbook

US CPI — Consumer Inflation

The single biggest macro print: a hot or cool CPI moves rates, the dollar, gold and risk together. With headline inflation sticky near 4% on the energy shock, core CPI is the number — anything at or above +0.4% m/m keeps the hike tail alive.

Next scheduled Jul 14, 2026 · in 11 days

What to watch: Core CPI m/m (the cleanest read), headline y/y, shelter & services-ex-housing, and how it lands vs the whisper.

Three ways this can break, each with its butterfly cascade (the first move → what it sets off next) and a probable-recommendation playbook. Probabilities are our model's base rates for each outcome; cascade magnitudes are typical first-day reaction-function priors.

35%

Hot — core at/above +0.4% m/m

risk off

Core comes in hot and the disinflation story stalls. Yields and the dollar jump, the hike tail re-prices, and high-valuation equities take the brunt through the discount-rate channel.

Immediate effects · the first move

▲ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10+10 to +18bpthe whole curve reprices a higher rate path
▲ US dollar (DXY) DXY+0.6 to +0.9%rate-differential + haven bid lift the dollar
▲ Inflation breakevens+the market re-prices higher forward inflation
▼ Gold XAU-0.8 to -1.5%real yields up usually win over the inflation-hedge bid on the day

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▼ Nasdaq 100 NDX-1.5 to -2.5%long-duration AI/tech is most exposed to the discount-rate jump
▼ Bitcoin BTC-2 to -4%risk + liquidity proxy sells the tightening
▼ High-yield credit HYGspreads +financial conditions tighten; spreads widen

Probable recommendation

Hawkish repricing; defend against duration risk.

LongLong DXY↗ +0.7%

ShortShort NDX↘ -2.0%Short BTC↘ -3.0%Short DGS10↘ price -

Cash / hedgeCut high-multiple growth and long-duration bonds; raise USD cash. Gold is two-sided — real yields usually beat the inflation-hedge bid intraday.

For a common-man portfolio: Hot inflation = rates stay high (or rise). The most vulnerable thing you own is probably expensive tech and long-term bonds. Trim those, hold cash, wait for the dust to settle.

40%

In-line — meets consensus

mixed

CPI lands on consensus. The binary clears, implied vol drops, and markets exhale into a modest relief drift with no new rate-path information.

Immediate effects · the first move

▼ Volatility (VIX) VIX-4 to -8%the biggest binary of the month resolves in-line
◆ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10~flatno surprise → no repricing

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▲ S&P 500 SPX+0.3 to +0.8%relief bid as the tail risk clears
▲ Bitcoin BTC+0.5 to +1.5%vol crush frees risk budget

Probable recommendation

Fade the vol; modest risk-on.

LongLong SPX↗ +0.5%Long BTC↗ +1.0%

ShortShort VIX↘ -6%

For a common-man portfolio: Inflation came in as expected — the scary scenario didn't happen, so markets relax. No portfolio change needed.

25%

Cool — soft print, disinflation resumes

risk on

Core surprises soft and the disinflation trend reasserts. Cut odds rise, yields and the dollar fall, and risk rallies hard — the cleanest risk-on print there is.

Immediate effects · the first move

▼ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10-10 to -18bpcut odds re-price; the curve rallies
▼ US dollar (DXY) DXY-0.6 to -1.0%lower yields pull the dollar down
▲ Gold XAU+1.0 to +1.8%falling real yields are an unambiguous tailwind

Ripple effects · what it sets off next

▲ Nasdaq 100 NDX+1.5 to +2.5%lower discount rate is rocket fuel for long-duration tech
▲ Bitcoin BTC+3 to +5%the highest-beta liquidity proxy leads the rally
▲ High-yield credit HYGspreads -easier conditions compress spreads

Probable recommendation

Risk-on; lean into duration and high-beta.

LongLong NDX↗ +2.0%Long BTC↗ +4.0%Long XAU↗ +1.4%

ShortShort DXY↘ -0.8%

For a common-man portfolio: Cool inflation means cheaper money ahead — good for almost everything you own, especially growth stocks, gold and crypto. A green day; don't fight it.

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Reaction-function priors tuned to the current regime, grounded in published cross-asset consensus — not measured abnormal returns (those are on the individual scenario pages). This is a probabilistic model of the future, not investment advice.