US CPI — Consumer Inflation
The single biggest macro print: a hot or cool CPI moves rates, the dollar, gold and risk together. With headline inflation sticky near 4% on the energy shock, core CPI is the number — anything at or above +0.4% m/m keeps the hike tail alive.
What to watch: Core CPI m/m (the cleanest read), headline y/y, shelter & services-ex-housing, and how it lands vs the whisper.
Hot — core at/above +0.4% m/m
risk offCore comes in hot and the disinflation story stalls. Yields and the dollar jump, the hike tail re-prices, and high-valuation equities take the brunt through the discount-rate channel.
- ▲ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10+10 to +18bpthe whole curve reprices a higher rate path
- ▲ US dollar (DXY) DXY+0.6 to +0.9%rate-differential + haven bid lift the dollar
- ▲ Inflation breakevens+the market re-prices higher forward inflation
- ▼ Gold XAU-0.8 to -1.5%real yields up usually win over the inflation-hedge bid on the day
- ▼ Nasdaq 100 NDX-1.5 to -2.5%long-duration AI/tech is most exposed to the discount-rate jump
- ▼ Bitcoin BTC-2 to -4%risk + liquidity proxy sells the tightening
- ▼ High-yield credit HYGspreads +financial conditions tighten; spreads widen
Scenario-conditional research framing
In-line — meets consensus
mixedCPI lands on consensus. The binary clears, implied vol drops, and markets exhale into a modest relief drift with no new rate-path information.
- ▼ Volatility (VIX) VIX-4 to -8%the biggest binary of the month resolves in-line
- ◆ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10~flatno surprise → no repricing
- ▲ S&P 500 SPX+0.3 to +0.8%relief bid as the tail risk clears
- ▲ Bitcoin BTC+0.5 to +1.5%vol crush frees risk budget
Scenario-conditional research framing
Cool — soft print, disinflation resumes
risk onCore surprises soft and the disinflation trend reasserts. Cut odds rise, yields and the dollar fall, and risk rallies hard — the cleanest risk-on print there is.
- ▼ 10-year Treasury yield DGS10-10 to -18bpcut odds re-price; the curve rallies
- ▼ US dollar (DXY) DXY-0.6 to -1.0%lower yields pull the dollar down
- ▲ Gold XAU+1.0 to +1.8%falling real yields are an unambiguous tailwind
- ▲ Nasdaq 100 NDX+1.5 to +2.5%lower discount rate is rocket fuel for long-duration tech
- ▲ Bitcoin BTC+3 to +5%the highest-beta liquidity proxy leads the rally
- ▲ High-yield credit HYGspreads -easier conditions compress spreads
Scenario-conditional research framing
Reaction-function priors tuned to the current regime, grounded in published cross-asset consensus — not measured abnormal returns (those are on the individual scenario pages). This is a probabilistic model of the future, not investment advice.