Tech
TSLA
TSLA—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:TSLA · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for TSLA, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 0% · 0 up vs 0 down scenarios
TSLA is covered, but its scenario map is still incomplete. The near-term panel below uses the empirical market data currently available. MacroGuru does not infer a neutral scenario signal from missing evidence.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
TSLA is a close call over the next 7 days: 51.8% chance of a lower close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -6.5% to +6.2% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 48.6% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- No dominant scenario catalyst cleared the current threshold.
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
5 weak or unverified headline(s) were discounted before this read was shown.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- No cleared evidence on this side.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.70.
- Current MacroGuru regime backdropThe week the hike died. Two weeks ago markets priced a September Fed hike near 70% — it is roughly 25% now, and prediction markets put 74% on a hold. That repricing is the whole tape: bitcoin squeezed 14% in a day on a billion dollars of short liquidations and a doubled Treasury buyback, gold sits at a record $4,537, and the dollar is slipping. Oil runs the other way — the US naval blockade of Iran is back on and Brent is up 7.5% on the week. Three catalysts land inside this window: July PCE and Nvidia earnings on Aug 26, then Jackson Hole opens Aug 27. One number clears 70% this week — the lira, at 87%. Everything else sits 58–59%, and we print that rather than manufacture conviction into a wall of events. Every number below is the model's, not an analyst's — and every one now carries its thesis, including the uncomfortable part: four of the five sit within two points of their own twenty-year base rate. The model's contribution this week is a momentum tilt, not an edge. We would rather you read that than not. Window: Aug 20 – 27, 2026
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · SEC EDGAR data.sec.gov · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move TSLA — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes TSLA up
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▼ Pushes TSLA down
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