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MSFT
MSFT—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:MSFT · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for MSFT, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: TWO-SIDED
conviction 0% · 0 up vs 0 down scenarios
MSFT is covered, but its scenario map is still incomplete. The near-term panel below uses the empirical market data currently available. MacroGuru does not infer a neutral scenario signal from missing evidence.
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
MSFT slightly higher over the next 7 days: 56.5% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.9% to +3.0% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The band is fairly balanced, so the read is more about direction than payoff skew.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 56.3% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- No dominant scenario catalyst cleared the current threshold.
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 56.3%, vol 3.92%, momentum z 0.47.
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -0.70.
- Current MacroGuru regime backdropThe week the hike died. Two weeks ago markets priced a September Fed hike near 70% — it is roughly 25% now, and prediction markets put 74% on a hold. That repricing is the whole tape: bitcoin squeezed 14% in a day on a billion dollars of short liquidations and a doubled Treasury buyback, gold sits at a record $4,537, and the dollar is slipping. Oil runs the other way — the US naval blockade of Iran is back on and Brent is up 7.5% on the week. Three catalysts land inside this window: July PCE and Nvidia earnings on Aug 26, then Jackson Hole opens Aug 27. One number clears 70% this week — the lira, at 87%. Everything else sits 58–59%, and we print that rather than manufacture conviction into a wall of events. Every number below is the model's, not an analyst's — and every one now carries its thesis, including the uncomfortable part: four of the five sit within two points of their own twenty-year base rate. The model's contribution this week is a momentum tilt, not an edge. We would rather you read that than not. Window: Aug 20 – 27, 2026
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided. Fewer than three active factors cleared; public display should show calibration as tracking.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · SEC EDGAR data.sec.gov · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Current Decision Receipts for MSFT
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that MSFT rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
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Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move MSFT — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes MSFT up
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▼ Pushes MSFT down
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