The receipt · a call frozen on the record

Oil keeps a war premium as the Strait of Hormuz stays contested

⏳ OPEN — resolves 2026-07-05. The rule below was fixed before the outcome; this page is the receipt.

The claim: After weekend US–Iran strikes, the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Brent holds above ~$70 with upside skew — no return to a calm, normalized tape this week.
Published: week of 2026-06-29 · resolves: 2026-07-05

The resolution rule — fixed before the outcome

TRUE if Brent crude trades above $70 at any point Jun 29–Jul 5 AND Hormuz traffic does NOT durably normalize to pre-crisis levels by Jul 5.

⛓ frozen in the prediction chain — event #4 · hash 822804c0fb0d · the chain is public and verifiable; editing this call after the fact would snap it.

Context

The full scenario & cascade → · This week's calls · The public scorecard · a 80% call fails 2 times in 10 — that's the deal.