What if Naval clash in Hormuz spikes the war premium?
A direct US-Iran naval engagement in the Strait of Hormuz, short of full closure, still freezes tanker traffic for days and sends Brent and freight sharply higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A direct US-Iran naval engagement in the Strait of Hormuz, short of full closure, still freezes tanker traffic for days and sends Brent and freight sharply higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.6% hist +1.54–+6.93% · other way -9.61% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.3% hist -2.14–-1.13% · other way +0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist +1.29–+2.21% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist -0.34–+1.93% · other way +4.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.1% hist -2.0–-1.01% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.17–-0.56% · other way +0.66% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.56–+1.45% · other way +11.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.56–+4.34% · other way -1.88% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.27–-0.4% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.07–+2.72% · other way +0.21% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.21–-0.34% · other way +8.87% (n=11) |
| 13 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.07–+0.51% · other way +4.46% (n=11) |
| 14 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.84–+1.0% · other way +5.33% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.9% · 5d +1.8% | 66% | 17 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +5bp | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +0.5% | 61% | 17 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +5bp | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |