The receipt · a call frozen on the record

Coinbase slips as crypto cools

✗ WRONG — we said 61%. It didn't happen. Brier 0.372 logged, on the record forever · evidence ↗

What we got wrong: COIN close 2026-08-10 148.68 vs 2026-08-03 146.50 → not lower

The claim: Coinbase finishes lower too — the second leg of the engine's crypto-proxy fade. 61%.
Published: week of 2026-08-04 · resolves: 2026-08-10

The resolution rule — fixed before the outcome

TRUE if Coinbase (COIN) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

frozen in the prediction chain — event #34 · hash fa391e2ee934 · the chain is public and verifiable; editing this call after the fact would snap it.

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Context

The full scenario & cascade → · This week's calls · The public scorecard · a 61% call fails 4 times in 10 — that's the deal.