The receipt · a call frozen on the record

MicroStrategy fades with the crypto-levered trade

✗ WRONG — we said 61%. It didn't happen. Brier 0.372 logged, on the record forever · evidence ↗

What we got wrong: MSTR close 2026-08-10 97.33 vs 2026-08-03 94.86 → not lower

The claim: MicroStrategy finishes the week lower — the engine's biggest expected drop in the crypto-proxy complex. 61%.
Published: week of 2026-08-04 · resolves: 2026-08-10

The resolution rule — fixed before the outcome

TRUE if MicroStrategy (MSTR) closes lower on 2026-08-10 than its 2026-08-03 daily close; FALSE if it closes flat or higher. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

frozen in the prediction chain — event #36 · hash 8c3b404f16f0 · the chain is public and verifiable; editing this call after the fact would snap it.

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Context

The full scenario & cascade → · This week's calls · The public scorecard · a 61% call fails 4 times in 10 — that's the deal.