Now what?
The dates are certain; the reaction is not. Read cloud growth, capex, and guidance before reading the headline EPS beat.
MacroGuru Decision Receipt · resolved
The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.
99%published call
The frozen forecast
All three companies have published official earnings dates. The scheduled releases are near-certain; the unknown is what cloud growth and AI capex do to the Nasdaq.
This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.
Plain-language decision summary
Why it matters and what to watch
The probability is a frozen forecast, not a promise. The watchlist is conditional: it shows the assets most likely to react if the claim resolves as written.
Assets to watch
Expected first reaction if the forecast resolves true:
When we will know
Resolved Jul 30, 2026: the call was right.
Outcome evidence: www.microsoft.com · investor.atmeta.com · www.sec.gov
Open the scientific audit trail Evidence timing, market comparison, model limits, divergence, hashes, and score contract
Evidenceretrospective passages verified not decision eligible
Narrativeabstained no prepublication directional passages
Marketnot available
Modelnot independently measured
Divergencenot measured
Cascadelinked scenario and conditional watchlist
Scoreexcluded scheduled anchor
What changed—and what is actually evidenced
Evidence snapshot
retrospective passages verified not decision eligibleShort claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.
3 source references; verified retrospective passages: 3; original-decision effective independent sources: 0.
Evidence hash: 63d05fb0b8fa5c88e7c049ab4e32054a6c6293459943a565475fbc506cf7bf04
Atomic claim and resolver
registeredTRUE if Microsoft and Meta publish their scheduled results on July 29 and Amazon publishes its scheduled results on July 30. Scheduled-certain and excluded from the skill score.
Resolver: calendar_true
Claim-to-span citations added after the lock
These claims are useful context today, but the stage receipt prevents them from being backdated into the original forecast.
- Microsoft scheduled its fiscal Q4 results for after the July 29 close.
- Meta scheduled its Q2 results for after the July 29 close.
- Amazon scheduled its Q2 earnings call for July 30 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific.
Open the deterministic stage receipt → · Read the evidence-spine method →
Four lanes, no silent pooling
Narrative agreement
abstained no prepublication directional passagesAbstained
3 verified retrospective spans; 0 admitted before the forecast lock.
No passage-level agreement score is substituted from later evidence, headlines, source counts, market prices, or the published call.
The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.
Statistical model
not independently measurednot measured
The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.
The market
not availablenot measured
Frozen market input at publication · point only, not an executable quote.
No matched prediction-market measurement is registered.
Combined estimate
withheld no performance learned weightnot measured
0 sensitivity points; none promoted as a learned production estimate.
No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.
Where the estimates diverge
not measured
No matched market lane is available for comparison.
Latest frozen market comparison: not measured; edge status: not measured.
Open this shadow history → · Open the Forecast Divergence Lab →
Why it matters—and now what
Conditional cascade
linked scenario and conditional watchlistTech-sector earnings recession
Related context only; not registered as the same forecast claim.
The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.
Research decision
research monitor onlyNow what? The dates are certain; the reaction is not. Read cloud growth, capex, and guidance before reading the headline EPS beat.
Activation: not registered. Invalidation: bound to false resolution not separately registered.
Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.
How this forecast will be graded
Score contract
excluded scheduled anchorPrimary: excluded from forecast skill.
Benchmarks: none for scheduled anchor.
Publication integrity
hash-chain anchoredLedger ID: 2026-07-24__big-tech-results-land
Chain entry: b415c60af494bededeb031333dcd941ab60cd83daa7df96b1ecd1e3ebcadd7fe
Receipt: 17d57ff7e6f867ddd624b744ece8e1279e3028b4f5aa729a6d0d70e7e8131ede