The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
Indices
Nasdaq 100
NDX—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:XYZ100 · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for Nasdaq 100, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Current outlook limited
The latest forecast is outside its freshness window; the price history has not refreshed within three days. The scenario map remains available. MacroGuru is withholding a current probability and static price until the inputs refresh.
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Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.
Scenario map
2675 up vs 6912 down scenarios
Nasdaq 100 has 9,587 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 2,675 upside and 6,912 downside channels—more downside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.
Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.
Current Decision Receipts for Nasdaq 100
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that Nasdaq 100 rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.
The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike
The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.
Historical price record
Last recorded observation: 2026-08-12. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.
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Top scenarios that move Nasdaq 100 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Nasdaq 100 up
| Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind | Odds not verified | +2.9% | 1–3 years |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | Odds not verified | +2.0% | 0–6 months |
| Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade | Odds not verified | +2.8% | 1–3 years |
| Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance | Odds not verified | +2.9% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,671 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Nasdaq 100 down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −4.0% | 0–6 months |
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | Odds not verified | −3.6% | 0–6 months |
| M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika | Odds not verified | −3.2% | 0–6 months |
| ADIZ saturation incursion | Odds not verified | −4.6% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,908 more down-scenarios in the library