Indices
Nasdaq 100
NDX29,809← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Nasdaq 100, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 41% · 2675 up vs 6912 down scenarios
Nasdaq 100 leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 9,587 mapped scenarios that move Nasdaq 100, 2,675 push it up and 6,912 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Nasdaq 100 lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (39% likely, ~4.0% on Nasdaq 100). This week our model already has Nasdaq 100 biased lower. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the down-lean: Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line (37% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Nasdaq 100 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Nasdaq 100 up
| Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line | 37% | +3.1% | 0–6 months |
| Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement | 41% | +4.1% | 1–3 years |
| Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind | 55% | +2.9% | 1–3 years |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | 36% | +2.0% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,671 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Nasdaq 100 down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | 39% | −4.0% | 0–6 months |
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | 44% | −3.6% | 0–6 months |
| M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika | 38% | −3.2% | 0–6 months |
| ADIZ saturation incursion | 27% | −4.6% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,908 more down-scenarios in the library