Indices
Nasdaq 100
NDX—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:XYZ100 · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Nasdaq 100, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 42% · 2675 up vs 6912 down scenarios
Nasdaq 100 leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 9,587 mapped scenarios that move Nasdaq 100, 2,675 push it up and 6,912 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing Nasdaq 100 lower is China re-imposes global antimony ban (event odds not yet verified; ~4.0% estimated impact on Nasdaq 100 if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Nasdaq 100 slightly higher over the next 7 days: 57.5% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -3.1% to +1.4% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 58.8% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.96% estimated impact if it hits
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.6% estimated impact if it hits
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur faminebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -3.57% estimated impact if it hits
- China re-imposes global antimony banbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -3.99% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Rises on Strong AI Earnings, Benign Inflation - TradingViewTradingView · market_source
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
5 weak or unverified headline(s) were discounted before this read was shown.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- EU-US tariff truce averts trade warEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.96% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.6% mapped move if the event occurs.
- US-China trade détenteEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 4.74% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Stock Market Today: Nasdaq 100 Rises on Strong AI Earnings, Benign Inflation - TradingView
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.47.
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -3.57% mapped move if the event occurs.
- China re-imposes global antimony banEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -3.99% mapped move if the event occurs.
- M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake TanganyikaEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -3.25% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Scenario library · TradingView · asset evidence mesh / filings-calendar layer · asset mesh + scenario graph
Current Decision Receipts for Nasdaq 100
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that Nasdaq 100 rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.
The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike
The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Nasdaq 100 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Nasdaq 100 up
| Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind | Odds not verified | +2.9% | 1–3 years |
| EU-US tariff truce averts trade war | Odds not verified | +2.0% | 0–6 months |
| Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade | Odds not verified | +2.8% | 1–3 years |
| Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance | Odds not verified | +2.9% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,671 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Nasdaq 100 down
| China re-imposes global antimony ban | Odds not verified | −4.0% | 0–6 months |
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | Odds not verified | −3.6% | 0–6 months |
| M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika | Odds not verified | −3.2% | 0–6 months |
| ADIZ saturation incursion | Odds not verified | −4.6% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,908 more down-scenarios in the library
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