Indices

S&P 500

SPX—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:SP500 · provider market, not official cash close

← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for S&P 500, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Current outlook limited

The latest forecast is outside its freshness window; the price history has not refreshed within three days. The scenario map remains available. MacroGuru is withholding a current probability and static price until the inputs refresh.

Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.

Scenario map 2110 up vs 6289 down scenarios

S&P 500 has 8,399 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 2,110 upside and 6,289 downside channels—more downside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.

Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.

Current Decision Receipts for S&P 500

Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that S&P 500 rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.

86%event probabilityconditional monitor / no directional claim for SPX if the event resolves true

The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction

Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.

99%event probabilityconditional monitor / no directional claim for SPX if the event resolves true

The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon

Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.

Verify the canonical asset-to-receipt index →

Historical price record

Last recorded observation: 2026-08-12. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.

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Top scenarios that move S&P 500 — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes S&P 500 up

Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind	Odds not verified	+1.6%	1–3 years
Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade	Odds not verified	+1.6%	1–3 years
Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance	Odds not verified	+1.6%	1–3 years
Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line	Odds not verified	+1.8%	0–6 months

+ 2,106 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes S&P 500 down

RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine	Odds not verified	−1.9%	0–6 months
M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika	Odds not verified	−1.8%	0–6 months
ADIZ saturation incursion	Odds not verified	−2.5%	0–6 months
SNB sells reserves to weaken franc	Odds not verified	−1.7%	0–6 months

+ 6,285 more down-scenarios in the library