Indices
S&P 500
SPX—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:SP500 · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for S&P 500, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans LOWER
conviction 45% · 2110 up vs 6289 down scenarios
S&P 500 leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 8,399 mapped scenarios that move S&P 500, 2,110 push it up and 6,289 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing S&P 500 lower is RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine (event odds not yet verified; ~1.9% estimated impact on S&P 500 if it occurs). This week our model already has S&P 500 biased higher. Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the down-lean: Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
S&P 500 slightly higher over the next 7 days: 57.7% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.3% to +0.9% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The downside band is wider, so the read is cautious even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 59.5% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow wavebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.35% estimated impact if it hits
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.82% estimated impact if it hits
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur faminebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.93% estimated impact if it hits
- M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyikabearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.81% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- S&P 500 ends higher as CoreWeave results fuel AI optimism - ReutersReuters · reputable_market_source
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
5 weak or unverified headline(s) were discounted before this read was shown.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- Vietnam FTSE EM go-live triggers $6bn+ passive inflow waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.35% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.82% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed quietly expands balance sheetEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.89% mapped move if the event occurs.
- S&P 500 ends higher as CoreWeave results fuel AI optimism - Reuters
Why lower
- Recent volume participationVolume z-score -1.93.
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.93% mapped move if the event occurs.
- M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake TanganyikaEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.81% mapped move if the event occurs.
- ADIZ saturation incursionEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -2.54% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · OHLCV bars · Reuters · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Current Decision Receipts for S&P 500
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that S&P 500 rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
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Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move S&P 500 — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes S&P 500 up
| Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 1–3 years |
| Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 1–3 years |
| Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance | Odds not verified | +1.6% | 1–3 years |
| Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line | Odds not verified | +1.8% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,106 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes S&P 500 down
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | Odds not verified | −1.9% | 0–6 months |
| M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika | Odds not verified | −1.8% | 0–6 months |
| ADIZ saturation incursion | Odds not verified | −2.5% | 0–6 months |
| SNB sells reserves to weaken franc | Odds not verified | −1.7% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,285 more down-scenarios in the library
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