Indices

S&P 500

SPX7,483

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves S&P 500, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans LOWER conviction 45% · 2110 up vs 6289 down scenarios

S&P 500 leans lower near-term — high conviction. Of the 8,399 mapped scenarios that move S&P 500, 2,110 push it up and 6,289 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews lower. The lead driver pushing S&P 500 lower is RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine (44% likely, ~1.9% on S&P 500). This week our model already has S&P 500 biased higher. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the down-lean: Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line (37% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves S&P 500 — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes S&P 500 up

Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line	37%	+1.8%	0–6 months
Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement	41%	+2.2%	1–3 years
Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind	55%	+1.6%	1–3 years
Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade	54%	+1.6%	1–3 years

+ 2,106 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes S&P 500 down

RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine	44%	−1.9%	0–6 months
M23 advances on Uvira, threatening Lake Tanganyika	38%	−1.8%	0–6 months
ADIZ saturation incursion	27%	−2.5%	0–6 months
SNB sells reserves to weaken franc	27%	−1.7%	0–6 months

+ 6,285 more down-scenarios in the library