MacroGuru
Shadow comparison · shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1

What MacroGuru said, what the evidence supports, and where the market moved

This page keeps the original forecast, narrative evidence, statistical model, and prediction market in separate lanes. It shows changes without pretending that a later market quote was known earlier—or that a market price is a news conclusion.

No ensemble has been promoted. All 7 current calls are now resolved. Later quote histories remain descriptive and cannot be backdated into the original decisions or silently fit a production weight. The narrative lane also abstains because the present source spans were frozen after the forecast lock.
4/7Matched market contracts
9Frozen market observations
0Admissible narrative indexes
0Unresolved rows fit

Current forecast histories

shadow only unresolved and unlearned

The Bank of England holds at 3.75%

97% published abstained narrative index

Latest market: 96.6%–97.9%; 2 frozen observation(s).

Difference: -0.25 probability points. Edge: withheld shared input and unverified costs.

  • · 98.0% · chain anchored publication point
  • · 96.6%–97.9% · tls verified public clob top of book

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shadow only unresolved and unlearned

The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike

96% published abstained narrative index

Latest market: 97.2%–97.7%; 2 frozen observation(s).

Difference: -1.45 probability points. Edge: withheld shared input and unverified costs.

  • · 97.0% · chain anchored publication point
  • · 97.2%–97.7% · tls verified public clob top of book

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shadow only unresolved and unlearned

The Fed stays on hold — no July hike

94% published abstained narrative index

Latest market: 76.2%–76.4%; 2 frozen observation(s).

Difference: 17.7 probability points. Edge: withheld shared input and unverified costs.

  • · 93.0% · chain anchored publication point
  • · 76.2%–76.4% · tls verified public clob top of book

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shadow only unresolved and unlearned

Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower

78% published abstained narrative index

Latest market: 76.0%–77.0%; 3 frozen observation(s).

Difference: 1.5 probability points. Edge: withheld shared input and unverified costs.

  • · 77.0% · chain anchored publication point
  • · 76.0%–77.0% · chain anchored public page top of book
  • · 76.0%–77.0% · tls verified public clob top of book

Open divergence receipt →

What the resolved history can—and cannot—say

MacroGuru currently has 15 skill-eligible resolved event forecasts. Only 6 have matched market points, and zero have a matched pre-lock Narrative Agreement Index. That is below the registered 30-family gate.

Published MacroGuru Brier on the 15 independent event families is 0.106593; the fixed 50/50 comparator is 0.25; and the prequential Jeffreys climatology is 0.202005. The 6 market-matched families are reported in the JSON, but every matched outcome resolved true and no domain reaches the registered 10-family gate. That cannot establish a reusable weight.

Cost adjustment is withheld because the historical market points do not include executable quotes and verified fees. This is a negative result, not missing copy: Only 6 resolved event families have matched crowd points, none have a matched narrative index, and historical points lack executable quotes and verified fees. No weight or cost-adjusted edge is admissible.

Open the divergence collection → · Open the evaluation → · Inspect Decision Receipts →

Collection hash: 6c28aee3d5a75904e0fe0021b6c95f345f4e0eede0dbfced96ed10515b385e84
Evaluation hash: 45a75198bfd673893aa26f767dda05a3f2dc26014f08a02a2538884efb72eeba