Now what?
A 3.3% or lower print calms the immediate inflation impulse; 3.4% or higher puts the hike debate straight back on screen.
MacroGuru Decision Receipt · resolved
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
78%published call
The frozen forecast
The crowd gives the ≤3.3% bucket about 77%. June CPI cooled sharply, while the Fed's own report still flags elevated core PCE and upside energy risk.
This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.
Plain-language decision summary
Why it matters and what to watch
The probability is a frozen forecast, not a promise. The watchlist is conditional: it shows the assets most likely to react if the claim resolves as written.
Assets to watch
Expected first reaction if the forecast resolves true:
When we will know
Resolved Jul 30, 2026: the call was right.
Outcome evidence: www.bea.gov
Open the scientific audit trail Evidence timing, market comparison, model limits, divergence, hashes, and score contract
Evidenceretrospective passages verified not decision eligible
Narrativeabstained no prepublication directional passages
Marketexecutable interval measured
Modelwithheld specification instability
Divergenceno robust edge ranges overlap
Cascadelinked scenario and conditional watchlist
Scoreregistered
What changed—and what is actually evidenced
Evidence snapshot
retrospective passages verified not decision eligibleShort claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.
3 source references; verified retrospective passages: 2; original-decision effective independent sources: 0.
Evidence hash: ecffa26e9c0d743f841f4c597f543d10707e3d21b5578952ce7da3443daffa85
Atomic claim and resolver
registeredTRUE if BEA reports June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower, using the one-decimal figure in the Personal Income and Outlays release; FALSE at 3.4% or higher.
Resolver: Did BEA report June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower in the July 30, 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release?
- Polymarket — June core PCE
- BEA — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
- Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report
Claim-to-span citations added after the lock
These claims are useful context today, but the stage receipt prevents them from being backdated into the original forecast.
- The Fed's July report recorded May core PCE inflation at 3.4% year over year.
- BEA scheduled the next PCE release for July 30, 2026.
Open the deterministic stage receipt → · Read the evidence-spine method →
Four lanes, no silent pooling
Narrative agreement
abstained no prepublication directional passagesAbstained
2 verified retrospective spans; 0 admitted before the forecast lock.
No passage-level agreement score is substituted from later evidence, headlines, source counts, market prices, or the published call.
The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.
Statistical model
withheld specification instability67.4%
Specification range: 30.3%–86.4%
The market
executable interval measured76.5%
Frozen market input at publication: 76.0%–77.0% executable interval.
Latest observed: 76.0%–77.0% at 2026-07-24T10:21:53.051000Z; 3 frozen observation(s). This later quote was not available to the original decision.
Open market history → · Compare all forecasts →
The executable probability interval is frozen, but depth, fees, and position limits are not represented as belief.
Combined estimate
withheld unlearned market weightnot measured
5 sensitivity points; none promoted as a learned production estimate.
production scalar withheld; alpha is sensitivity only until matched, prequential model-versus-market resolutions pass the registered gate
Where the estimates diverge
no robust edge ranges overlap
Model and market remain separate. Overlap is an abstain/no-robust-edge state, not permission to average the two.
Latest frozen market comparison: 1.5 probability points; edge status: withheld shared input and unverified costs.
Open this shadow history → · Open the Forecast Divergence Lab →
Why it matters—and now what
Conditional cascade
linked scenario and conditional watchlistServices superinflation: shelter and insurance keep core PCE above 4%
Related context only; not registered as the same forecast claim.
The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.
Research decision
research monitor onlyNow what? A 3.3% or lower print calms the immediate inflation impulse; 3.4% or higher puts the hike debate straight back on screen.
Activation: not registered. Invalidation: bound to false resolution not separately registered.
Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.
How this forecast will be graded
Score contract
registeredPrimary: brier. (published_probability - binary_outcome)^2
Benchmarks: no_skill_0.50, frozen_crowd_probability.
Publication integrity
hash-chain anchoredLedger ID: 2026-07-24__june-core-pce-cools
Chain entry: 1fe2eac5ed25f79f5f387a621183ecddcaa77aaf047735b2894fcb3c33102ee1
Receipt: 0eed659c1b1e6c38d335fd2d219e1a73d96b20dec18628b446edb3a79e3ac579