MacroGuru
MacroGuru Decision Receipt · resolved

The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike

The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.

Published Jul 24, 2026 Resolves Jul 31, 2026
96%published call

The frozen forecast

The BoJ raised to 1.0% in June. The current market assigns about 97% to no change in July, making a back-to-back hike the clear tail risk.

This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.

Plain-language decision summary

Why it matters and what to watch

The probability is a frozen forecast, not a promise. The watchlist is conditional: it shows the assets most likely to react if the claim resolves as written.

Now what?

A pause leaves the yen carry intact for one more meeting; a surprise hike would hit USD/JPY and global duration fast.

When we will know

Resolved Jul 31, 2026: the call was right.

Outcome evidence: www.boj.or.jp

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Evidenceretrospective passages verified not decision eligible
Narrativeabstained no prepublication directional passages
Marketcited point snapshot no executable interval
Modelnot independently measured
Divergenceobserved point gap not validated edge
Cascadelinked scenario and conditional watchlist
Scoreregistered

What changed—and what is actually evidenced

Evidence snapshot

retrospective passages verified not decision eligible

Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.

4 source references; verified retrospective passages: 2; original-decision effective independent sources: 0.

Evidence hash: 133cbaa833416de7f93694e5e967db3365f7c8cbe1e68ac822851269efbe7cc5

Atomic claim and resolver

registered

TRUE if the Bank of Japan leaves its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31 meeting; FALSE if it raises or lowers the rate.

Resolver: Did the Bank of Japan leave its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

Claim-to-span citations added after the lock

These claims are useful context today, but the stage receipt prevents them from being backdated into the original forecast.

  • The June BoJ decision set the overnight call-rate guideline at around 1.0%.verified retrospective span · passage:boj-june-rate-1-0
  • The BoJ calendar scheduled its next meeting for July 30-31.verified retrospective span · passage:boj-july-meeting

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Four lanes, no silent pooling

Narrative agreement

abstained no prepublication directional passages
Abstained
2 verified retrospective spans; 0 admitted before the forecast lock.

No passage-level agreement score is substituted from later evidence, headlines, source counts, market prices, or the published call.

The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.

Statistical model

not independently measured
not measured

The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.

The market

cited point snapshot no executable interval
97.0%
Frozen market input at publication · point only, not an executable quote.

Latest observed: 97.2%–97.7% at 2026-07-24T10:22:08.523000Z; 2 frozen observation(s). This later quote was not available to the original decision.

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This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.

Combined estimate

withheld no performance learned weight
not measured
0 sensitivity points; none promoted as a learned production estimate.

No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.

Where the estimates diverge

observed point gap not validated edge

The point difference is descriptive. It is not a learned trading edge and cannot establish disagreement after costs or shared evidence.

Published minus market: -1.0 probability points.

Latest frozen market comparison: -1.45 probability points; edge status: withheld shared input and unverified costs.

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Why it matters—and now what

Research decision

research monitor only

Now what? A pause leaves the yen carry intact for one more meeting; a surprise hike would hit USD/JPY and global duration fast.

Activation: not registered. Invalidation: bound to false resolution not separately registered.

Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.

How this forecast will be graded

Score contract

registered

Primary: brier. (published_probability - binary_outcome)^2

Benchmarks: no_skill_0.50, frozen_crowd_probability.

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