Biodiversity loss
Every scenario in which biodiversity loss is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
54 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
34%▼ 3–10 years
What if Anchovy biomass recovery rebuilds the global fishmeal supply?
33%▼ 3–10 years
What if Coordinated rewilding succeeds?
32%▼ 3–10 years
What if Coral-reef and fishery recovery rebuilds tropical food supply?
31%▲ 0–6 months
What if West-Africa cocoa black-pod disease deepens the deficit?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Regenerative-agriculture scale-up rebuilds soil and yields?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Drought-resilient millets and pulses ease climate food risk?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cellular agriculture cuts feed-grain demand for animal protein?
30%▲ 3–10 years
What if Permafrost thaw opens new high-latitude cropland?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Peru anchovy collapse forces a fishmeal-quota shock?
27%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cultivated food frees farmland?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Ogallala aquifer depletion shrinks US High-Plains irrigation?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Soil degradation cuts yields?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if Aging West-African cocoa trees lock in a multi-year shortfall?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Aquifer overdraft pushes India toward an irrigation crisis?
25%▼ 3–10 years
What if Alternative-protein scale-up cuts agricultural land & emissions?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if China policy-bank debt-for-nature swap unlocks frontier relief?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Stronger ENSO swings raise structural global crop volatility?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Colorado River cutbacks shrink Southwest US irrigated acreage?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if California Central Valley land subsidence cuts irrigated acreage?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Mangrove and wetland loss erodes coastal fisheries and rice?
23%▼ 1–3 years
What if Debt-for-nature swap wave converts $10bn+ across coastal frontiers?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Australian locust plague ravages a recovering grain crop?
23%▲ 3–10 years
What if Himalayan glacier retreat threatens Indo-Gangetic dry-season flow?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Wheat-stem-rust Ug99 spread threatens Asian and African crops?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Citrus-greening surge collapses global orange-juice supply?
23%▼ 3–10 years
What if Nature-positive finance reverses biodiversity decline?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Ocean fisheries collapse?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Desert-locust swarms threaten Horn-of-Africa and Asian grain?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Soil-degradation tipping point lowers staple-crop yields?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Amazon dieback shifts rainfall and destabilizes Brazil's crops?
22%▲ 3–10 years
What if Ocean acidification erodes shellfish and aquaculture yields?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Marine heatwave collapses Chilean salmon-and-feed output?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Reforestation & soil-carbon boom revives biodiversity?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if High-integrity carbon market scales: offsets fund nature?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Indian Ocean Dipole flip floods East Africa's cropland?
21%▲ 0–6 months
What if Hailstorm-and-frost belt damages EU fruit and vineyard output?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Great Plains megadrought entrenches a structural wheat deficit?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if Colombian coffee rust and rains deepen the Arabica deficit?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if Pollinator collapse cuts yields across fruit and oilseed crops?
20%▲ 3–10 years
What if Seed-bank and crop-diversity loss raises systemic food fragility?
19%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dryland reservoir crash forces emergency irrigation cutbacks?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Biodiversity collapse: pollinator loss cuts crop yields?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Carbon-offset market integrity collapse craters credit prices?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Debt-for-nature swap unwinds as conservation KPIs go unmet?
17%▼ 0–6 months
What if Wet boreal summer yields calm Canadian fire season?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Palm-oil shortfall from drought spikes vegetable oils?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining begins for copper-nickel?
16%▲ 3–10 years
What if Amazon tipping point: rainforest flips to savanna?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if Ocean heatwave collapses fisheries: protein-price shock?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Insect & bird population crash signals ecosystem unraveling?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if Arctic permafrost thaw releases methane feedback?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pacific Northwest heat dome: record deaths, grid strain?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if Small-island states face existential sea-level threat?
12%▲ 3–10 years
What if AMOC slowdown signal: Atlantic circulation weakens early?