What if Alternative-protein scale-up cuts agricultural land & emissions?
Cost-competitive plant-based and fermented proteins displace some livestock demand, easing feed-grain pressure, land use and methane emissions over the long run.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Cost-competitive plant-based and fermented proteins displace some livestock demand, easing feed-grain pressure, land use and methane emissions over the long run. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biodiversity loss ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.6–-0.1% · other way +4.07% (n=8) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.61–+2.47% · other way +2.37% (n=8) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.81–+2.15% · other way +5.39% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -14.92–+22.55% · other way +0.08% (n=8) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.47% · other way +0.09% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 9 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +23.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 73% | 7 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.3% | 71% | 8 | 0.28 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +20.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 9 | 0.22 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.3% | 53% | 7 | 0.06 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 53% | 9 | 0.05 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 8 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 7 | 0.04 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 33% | 7 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -15.9% | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |