What if Wet boreal summer yields calm Canadian fire season?
A cool, wet Canadian summer produces one of the quietest boreal wildfire seasons in years, sparing North American air quality and easing smoke-driven activity and health drag.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A cool, wet Canadian summer produces one of the quietest boreal wildfire seasons in years, sparing North American air quality and easing smoke-driven activity and health drag. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biodiversity loss ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Consumer spending ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.52–+3.31% · other way +7.24% (n=4) |
| 2 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.88–+0.2% · other way -2.55% (n=10) |
| 3 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.86–+1.22% · other way +0.49% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -24.84–+30.01% · other way -6.76% (n=4) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -16.27–+19.44% · other way -1.66% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.46% · other way +0.64% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +-0.0–+0.4% · other way +0.66% (n=10) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.46–+0.09% · other way +13.91% (n=10) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -19.69–+23.71% · other way -2.13% (n=6) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.32% · other way +0.72% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 7 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -4.1% | 73% | 5 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +32.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +25.3% · 5d +1.8% | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +8bp | 67% | 7 | 0.30 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 7 | 0.28 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +20.6% · 5d +0.3% | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 5 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 6 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 5 | 0.07 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 5 | 0.06 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 54% | 6 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -15.1% | 50% | 2 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.7% ↺ fades | 45% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 45% | 5 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |