What if Coral-reef and fishery recovery rebuilds tropical food supply?
Large-scale reef restoration and enforced marine protected areas rebuild tropical fish stocks, restoring a key protein source and easing food stress.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Large-scale reef restoration and enforced marine protected areas rebuild tropical fish stocks, restoring a key protein source and easing food stress. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biodiversity loss ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.72–-0.16% · other way +4.07% (n=8) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.71–+2.41% · other way +2.37% (n=8) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.73–+2.28% · other way +5.39% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -14.89–+22.6% · other way +0.08% (n=8) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -15.73–+18.63% · other way -1.96% (n=8) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.23–+0.53% · other way +0.09% (n=9) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -15.89–+18.68% · other way -2.32% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.27–+0.44% · other way +0.28% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 9 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +23.3% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 73% | 7 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.3% | 71% | 8 | 0.28 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +19.8% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +20.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 5 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 9 | 0.22 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 7 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.3% | 53% | 7 | 0.06 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 53% | 9 | 0.05 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 53% | 8 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 7 | 0.04 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 33% | 7 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -15.9% | 50% | 4 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |