What if Australian locust plague ravages a recovering grain crop?
A major locust outbreak strips swathes of Australian wheat and barley after good rains, snatching away an expected export rebound and lifting prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A major locust outbreak strips swathes of Australian wheat and barley after good rains, snatching away an expected export rebound and lifting prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Biodiversity loss ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -5.68–+8.12% · other way -4.13% (n=9) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.26–+1.89% · other way +1.88% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 10 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +29.5% · 5d +7.0% | 100% | 2 | 0.75 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +7.9% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +2.9% | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | · |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.0% | 57% | 3 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 3 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 38% | 10 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 43% | 3 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +1bp · 5d +2bp | 48% | 10 | 0.00 | · |