What if Stronger ENSO swings raise structural global crop volatility?
Climate-amplified El Niño/La Niña extremes widen the year-to-year swing in major-belt yields, embedding a higher food-price risk premium across the decade.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Climate-amplified El Niño/La Niña extremes widen the year-to-year swing in major-belt yields, embedding a higher food-price risk premium across the decade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Biodiversity loss ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.12–+1.36% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.09–+0.82% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.12–+4.85% · other way -2.24% (n=11) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.26% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.15–+0.49% · other way +32.94% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.27–+0.44% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -3.92–+1.64% · other way +13.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +8.3% | 64% | 19 | 0.24 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.9% | 62% | 18 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 18 | 0.18 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 57% | 20 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 18 | 0.10 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 18 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 12 | 0.04 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 18 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +2bp | 51% | 29 | 0.02 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.7% | 49% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | · |