What if Pacific Northwest heat dome: record deaths, grid strain?
An unprecedented heat dome bakes the normally mild Pacific Northwest, causing mass-casualty deaths, wildfire ignition and grid stress in a region unadapted to extreme heat.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unprecedented heat dome bakes the normally mild Pacific Northwest, causing mass-casualty deaths, wildfire ignition and grid stress in a region unadapted to extreme heat. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Biodiversity loss ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.08–+0.33% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.55–+3.57% · other way -1.39% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.82–+6.77% · other way +0.5% (n=10) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.7% · other way +8.67% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.37–+6.0% · other way +5.96% (n=10) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–+0.37% · other way +24.45% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.44% · other way -0.09% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.16–+0.01% · other way +2.11% (n=11) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.32–+3.79% · other way -3.27% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.83–+6.24% · other way +5.98% (n=10) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.24–+0.3% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.75–+1.27% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +2.9% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 69% | 25 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 25 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 27 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +6.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 12 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 25 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | 0bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 25 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.6% · 5d -5.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 11 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 23 | 0.06 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 53% | 25 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 25 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 45% | 14 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |