What if Deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining begins for copper-nickel?
Commercial seabed nodule extraction starts in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, opening a contentious new copper, nickel and cobalt supply that caps long-run prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Commercial seabed nodule extraction starts in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, opening a contentious new copper, nickel and cobalt supply that caps long-run prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Biodiversity loss ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.87–+2.82% · other way -4.58% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.47–+1.17% · other way -3.36% (n=11) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.43–+0.5% · other way -2.27% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 7 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.0% | 82% | 5 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -4.1% | 73% | 5 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -2.9% | 82% | 5 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +25.3% · 5d +1.8% | 71% | 3 | 0.34 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +8bp | 67% | 7 | 0.30 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 7 | 0.28 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 6 | 0.14 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 5 | 0.07 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 5 | 0.06 | · |